What’s driving global medical trend

The cost drivers remain largely unchanged from prior years, from an insurer viewpoint:

• The overuse of care due to medical practitioners recommending too many services or overprescribing continues to be the leading driver of medical costs. The percentage of insurers citing this factor as a leading cost driver held steady at 64%, down slightly from 65% last year.
• Similarly, the overuse of care by insured members continues to be the second most important driver of medical costs, with 59% of insurers indicating that this is a significant cost driver, up four percentage points from last year.
• Understandably the percentage of employers indicating that the underuse or lack of preventive services is a significant cost driver rose from 34% last year to 38% in this year’s survey. This can be largely attributed to delay or avoidance of medical care during the pandemic.

Top conditions globally

By cost

Cancer, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal are the top three conditions by cost as was the case in the prior year (Figure 1); however, the biggest surprise was the percentage of insurers citing musculoskeletal as a top condition by cost, which jumped from 41% last year to 52% in this year’s survey. This can be largely attributed to remote workers’ sedentary lifestyle, which can increase the risk of musculoskeletal injuries.

It is expected that cancer, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal will remain the top three fastest-growing conditions by cost over the next 18 months.

By incidence

Musculoskeletal, cardiovascular and respiratory are the top three conditions by incidence (Figure 2). Cancer dropped from number one to number five this year, likely due to delayed treatment during the pandemic. This year saw musculoskeletal move into the top spot, whereas last year it was number five. The prevalence of respiratory conditions can in part be attributed to COVID-19. Looking ahead to the next 18 months, insurers expect mental and behavioral disorders, cancer and musculoskeletal to be the fastest-growing conditions in terms of incidence.

Regional perspectives

Cancer continues to be the leading condition by cost in Latin America and Asia Pacific. In Europe, musculoskeletal is the leading condition by cost; in the Middle East and Africa cardiovascular is the costliest condition.

Cardiovascular is the second leading condition by cost in Latin America and Asia Pacific. Cancer is the second costliest condition in Europe and in the Middle East and Africa.

When it comes to incidence of claims, there is even more variation by region. In Latin America, respondents rated diabetes as the leading condition by incidence, whereas in Asia Pacific, gastrointestinal is the top condition. In Europe, musculoskeletal is the leading condition by incidence; in Middle East and Africa, respiratory is in the top spot.

Next section: Managing medical trend