2022 is the first year where major sporting events are at the fore again. Covid has provided many immediate changes to risk over the past couple of years. As we hopefully approach a more settled time there are key issues now and in the future around climate change and how these events can identify, quantify and manage these risks.
When looking at elite sport the atmosphere really does effect Sporting performance. When considering what could happen this may require large infrastructure or transitional change towards sustainability. Meanwhile as the climate becomes more volatile how do they best transfer some of these catastrophic risks.
Climate change is having an increasing impact on our lives, including the sport we love to watch. With Wimbledon a staple British summertime favourite we challenged our climate specialists to explore what the future could look like. This blog summarises their key findings to on the impact climate change is going to have on the event from a physical and transitional risk perspective and how this can even impact the outcome of a tennis match.
There have been several instances of tennis tournaments not being finished due to adverse weather conditions, such as the 2011 Open de la Réunion, when all singles and doubles matches had to be cancelled, from the quarterfinals onwards, due to torrential rain and flooding at the venue in Réunion. During the US Open in 2004, when Federer played Andre Agassi, their whole five-set quarterfinal match was impacted by high winds. It had to be played over two days, as the gale-force winds and stormy weather stopped play on day one. The thrilling match, which was eventually won by Federer, has always been remembered as much for its extreme weather conditions as the tennis itself.
These examples illustrate the impact weather events can have on tennis matches and to forward predict the possibility of these will help to mitigate the risks involved. We have used 2 of our flagship tools in WTW to assess the climate and extreme events risk for All England Lawn Tennis Club and explain what this could mean for the Wimbledon Tennis Tournament in the years to come. Whilst in the medium term (2030) we expect limited change in the physical risks faced by Wimbledon, the impacts of climate change are likely to manifest on longer timescales (2050+).
So, what does this mean for the Wimbledon Tennis Tournament in the upcoming years?
The good news for Wimbledon is that the exposure of AELTC is generally low with no significant risks across the board. We have identified moderate wind exposure from winter storms and tornadoes (convective storms and thunderstorms) which are likely to remain within the current levels of variability. Although AELTC is not the most wind exposed area in the UK, there is 1% change that high winds could affect the site which may impact infrastructure of courts and buildings within Wimbledon. High winds can have a significant impact on a game by throwing a player’s serve off, making it difficult to control their shot and reducing the accuracy and success of a serve. Although this is less likely to happen during the 2 weeks of the tournament, regular maintenance of roofs and buildings, and a business continuity plan in place could mitigate any negative impacts to the building stock and minimise the risk to the Wimbledon tournament.
In the medium term (2030), limited change is expected in the physical risks faced by Wimbledon since the impacts of climate change are likely to manifest on longer timescales (2050+), significant changes are expected in the transitional risk space. However, significant shifts are expected regarding the UK’s economy and policy to facilitate the nation’s target of net zero by 2050. In order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement (I.e., limit global temperature rise to 1.5oC this century) countries need to rapidly decarbonise their economies to meet their GHG emissions reduction targets. Therefore, significant changes in policy are anticipated to enforce this – potentially including mandates on carbon pricing, building codes and the recyclability of products. These changes present ‘transition risks’ – those associated with the move to a low carbon economy.
These can be split into policy & legal, technology, market and reputation risks:
In conclusion, Wimbledon and sporting events in general needs to consider both the physical and transition risks they face due to climate change. Whilst they are they have significantly changed their own practices to address their impact to the environment, they also need to review and assess how the climate will impact the tournament. How they mitigate these climate risks could also bring a differing risk profile. Their own climate actions proved they have served an Ace, they don’t want to follow up with a future double fault!
1 For consistency, we use a baseline of 1981-2000 across the UKCP science reports, factsheets and guidance as well as the UKCP User Interface. Depending on the dataset, 1961-1990 and 1981-2010 baselines are also available through the UKCP User Interface. For UKCP Local, only the 1981-2000 baseline is available. Note that a 1981-2010 baseline is a standard currently used by the WMO and the State of the UK Climate reports.
2 https://www.allabouttennis.co.uk/blog/tennis-whatever-the-weather/#:~:text=A%20tennis%20
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Karl is Tech, Media & Telecommunications industry lead for GB. Assessing the trends and evolving risks in a complex industry. Taking experience from ten years as Head of Insurance and Business Continuity in a global media organisation. He takes an active interest in new technology and the evolving risks from AI to assist clients and internal service teams.
