LONDON, October 22, 2024 – People living in neighbouring postal districts can have dramatically different life expectancy after retirement, according to new research by WTW, which has analysed the longevity expectations of occupational pension scheme members in every postal district in the country.
The findings, from WTW’s latest Postcode Mortality Model, show that the 10 postal districts with the highest life expectancy in retirement are found in the South of England, East Anglia and West Midlands. In the highest district, Broadstone in Poole (BH18 postal district), retirees are expected to live to 88.2 years on average.
The 10 postal districts with the lowest life expectancy in retirement are found in the East of England, South Yorkshire and Glasgow. In the lowest district, the G34 Easterhouse area of Glasgow, retirees are expected to live to 83.5 years on average.
The study, which analyses mortality rates among millions of people receiving private sector occupational pensions, illustrates how geography does not dictate life expectancy but rather how factors including lifestyle and wealth do.
Those retiring in the B93 Solihull district of Birmingham are expected to enjoy an average lifespan of 88.1 years whereas their neighbours ten miles away in the B35 Castle Vale district are expected to enjoy an average lifespan of only 84.3 years, a difference of 3.8 years. Similarly, those retiring in Central Hull (HU2) are expected to live to 83.7 years on average whereas their neighbours in nearby North Ferriby (HU14) are expected to live to 87.4 years, some 3.7 years longer.
The difference between men and women can make the comparisons even starker, with the difference in life expectancy between a woman in B93 and a man in B35 being 6.6 years. The same comparison for HU2 and HU14 in Hull is a difference of 6.4 years.
According to WTW’s model, lifestyle, education, gender and wealth are among the most important factors in estimating life expectancy. Factors such as exercising regularly, eating healthily, having a university degree, saving regularly and owning a home all correlate with higher life expectancy, and these factors can vary widely even between adjoining geographical areas.
“More significant in determining life expectancy are the economic and lifestyle factors which can vary by as much in neighbouring areas as they can across the country.”
Stephen Caine | Senior Mortality Consultant, WTW
Stephen Caine, Senior Mortality Consultant at WTW said: “That there are big differences in life expectancy in different areas of the country comes as no great surprise. But these findings also highlight the fact that geography is itself not the key issue. More significant in determining life expectancy are the economic and lifestyle factors which can vary by as much in neighbouring areas as they can across the country.
“Those who have enjoyed well-paid jobs and a relatively comfortable and healthy life will on average live longer than those who have not. This is as true when looking at two suburbs of Birmingham as is it when the comparing Easterhouse in Glasgow to Sandbanks in Poole. When you also factor in that women tend to live longer than men, the average retirement for two people living only ten miles apart can be dramatically different.
“Postcode analysis of this kind, when used in tandem with other social and economic factors, is a powerful predictor of life expectancy and therefore a valuable tool for many areas of the financial services industry. For example, those running a defined benefit pension scheme can use our postcode mortality analysis in understanding the life expectancy of their own membership, and therefore will be better able to assess how much money needs to be put aside now to pay pensions in future.”
| Rank | District | Example town(s) | Region | Life expectancy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | Female | Average | ||||
| 1 | BH18 | Broadstone | Poole | 87.2 | 89.2 | 88.2 |
| 2 | BH13 | Sandbanks | Poole | 87.0 | 89.3 | 88.1 |
| 3 | B93 | Solihull | Birmingham | 87.2 | 89.1 | 88.1 |
| 4 | SY6 | Church Stretton | Shrewsbury | 86.8 | 89.2 | 88.0 |
| 5 | EX9 | Budleigh Salterton | Exeter | 86.8 | 89.2 | 88.0 |
| 6 | B91 | Solihull | Birmingham | 86.9 | 89.0 | 87.9 |
| 7 | BH22 | Ferndown | Bournemouth | 86.6 | 89.2 | 87.9 |
| 8 | IP15 | Aldeburgh | Suffolk | 86.9 | 88.9 | 87.9 |
| 9 | BH31 | Verwood | Bournemouth | 86.7 | 89.1 | 87.9 |
| 10 | EX10 | Sidmouth | Exeter | 86.5 | 89.1 | 87.8 |
| Rank | District | Example town(s) | Region | Life expectancy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | Female | Average | ||||
| 1 | G34 | Easterhouse | Glasgow | 81.7 | 85.4 | 83.5 |
| 2 | G45 | Castlemilk | Glasgow | 81.7 | 85.5 | 83.6 |
| 3 | DN31 | Grimsby | Lincolnshire | 81.8 | 85.6 | 83.7 |
| 4 | HU2 | Hull centre | Hull | 82.1 | 85.4 | 83.7 |
| 5 | DN1 | Doncaster centre | Doncaster | 81.9 | 85.7 | 83.8 |
| 6 | G21 | Balornock, Barmulloch, Germiston | Glasgow | 82.0 | 85.8 | 83.9 |
| 7 | G22 | Parkhouse, Milton, PossilPark | Glasgow | 81.9 | 85.9 | 83.9 |
| 8 | M11 | Bewswick, Clayton, Openshaw | Manchester | 82.4 | 85.4 | 83.9 |
| 9 | FY1 | Blackpool | Lancashire | 82.1 | 85.7 | 83.9 |
| 10 | L28 | Stockbridge Village | Liverpool | 82.0 | 85.9 | 83.9 |
WTW’s Postcode Mortality Model estimates mortality rates based on an individual’s likely lifestyle, health and wealth profile implied by their full postcode and other information. The latest version was calibrated by analysing millions of lives and over 650,000 deaths of occupational defined benefit pension scheme members in the UK, comparing how the implied lifestyle, health and wealth factors in each postcode correlate to the longevity outcomes of the members in the study. The life expectancy estimates shared in this press release are for a pension scheme member aged 65.
At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximize performance.
Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success.
In a white paper published today, WTW proposes four ways of replacing DC pensions with designs that could help employees achieve better outcomes without employers having to shoulder the risks.
WTW report on FTSE350 companies’ pension disclosures also finds that, for the first time ever, defined benefit scheme sponsors paid more into defined contribution schemes than into their DB plans.
