Vessels, undersea cables, and offshore oil installations increasingly becoming “gray zone” targets

LONDON, December 10, 2024 — The threat to vessels, undersea cables, and offshore oil installations has increased due to the availability of advanced weapons and the willingness of certain states – particularly Russia and Iran – to disregard international maritime laws. This is just one identified emerging risk from ‘gray zone aggression’, meaning any action used to weaken a country by means short of war, according to the latest Political Risk Index from WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), a leading global advisory, broking, and solutions company.

This edition of the index is developed with input from WTW’s marine and aerospace teams, sectors notably vulnerable to gray zone attacks, alongside support from the WTW Research Network and the crisis management team, both experts in addressing gray zone aggression and global security risks. The index follows WTW’s annual political risk survey published earlier this year, which found that 69 percent of respondents were impacted by geopolitically-related supply chain disruptions in 2024, including gray zone attacks on global shipping.

WTW’s research identifies three primary types of gray zone flashpoints: military conflicts and rivalries (e.g. Ukraine, South China Sea), fragile states (e.g. Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq), and ideological polarisation (e.g. political interference in Latin American elections). Examples of hybrid warfare include destruction of critical infrastructure, state cyber-attacks, weaponisation of migration, sponsorship of violent non-state actors, disinformation campaigns, and declared or undeclared economic sanctions. The report also observes an increasing trend in gray zone activities, partly driven by rising middle powers operating with limited military budgets.

Other findings include

• Marine assets: The global shadow fleet, which has grown exponentially since Russia began using it to export oil, was identified as another threat in the report. The vessels lack standard P&I insurance, do not undergo regular maintenance, and habitually alter their AIS signals.
• Insurance impact: Gray zone attacks causing exclusions and cancellations of insurance cover lead to disruptions and rerouting, affecting businesses reliant on timely shipping. However, trade disruption insurance offers some recourse for impacted companies.
• Aerospace threat: There is an increasing possibility for the aerospace sector to become a key gray zone target, and attacks such as GPS jamming and spoofing are already happening.

Samuel Wilkin, director of political risk analytics, WTW said: “Without insurance, many ships will not sail and planes will not fly, so improving our understanding of gray zone risks is vital for the protection of people and assets and the health of global commerce. These attacks appear to have soared in recent years, for many reasons. One reason is that countries that are deeply interconnected by globalisation increasingly find themselves in adversarial relationships, and these deep interconnections offer many avenues for gray zone action, especially actions directed at globalised businesses. Another reason is that new technologies have enabled gray zone actions, including cyber-attacks and remote attacks by drones. Hybrid warfare is likely to continue to rise and evolve, so insurers need to be able to understand the implications of ambiguous gray zone activities to properly assess risk.”