Global M&A upbeat start under threat as trade war escalates

• European dealmakers top global M&A rankings with strongest performance since 2020.
• Based on share price performance, M&A deals during the first three months of 2025 outperform non-acquirers for the first time in three years.
• However, global volume is down by 22% compared to the final quarter of 2024.

LONDON, April 8, 2025 — Global dealmakers achieved a market outperformance in the first three months of 2025, according to research on completed deals from WTW’s Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor (QDPM). Based on share price performance, companies making M&A deals outclassed the wider market^[1] by +1.5pp (percentage points) for acquisitions valued over $100 million completed between January and March 2025.

This is the first positive period since the final three months of 2022, following seven consecutive quarters of negative performance for acquirers. The long-term 15+ year trend continues to show M&A deals to have outperformed the market by +1.0pp since the global financial crisis.

Run in partnership with the M&A Research Centre at Bayes Business School, the data reveals that all regional acquirers, except for North America, outperformed their respective regional index for the first three months of 2025. During this period, North American dealmakers are -2.2pp below their regional index with 81 deals completed. This marks nine successive quarters of negative performance in the region over the last two years.

In contrast, European buyers significantly outperformed their regional index by +16.0pp during the first three months of 2025, although with fewer completed deals compared to the previous quarter (29 vs 42). UK dealmakers also outperformed the index reflecting the wider European trend. Asia-Pacific acquirers are +5.8pp above their regional index with 44 deals completed in the last three months, down from 61 deals in the final quarter of 2024.

Jana Mercereau, Head of Europe M&A Consulting, WTW, said: “Despite the bright start to 2025, sweeping new US tariffs combined with geopolitical uncertainty are likely to cast a shadow over M&A in the short term. Boardrooms may decide to delay deals as they digest the impact on their businesses, switching to wait-and-see mode until the uncertainty eases.

“At the same time, headwinds have continued to swirl for the past three years, yet many companies have still managed to find a way through to deliver inorganic growth – as demonstrated by the recent run of high-performing deals in Europe and Asia.”

The M&A data reveals that 163 deals valued over $100 million were completed globally during the first quarter of 2025. This represents a 22% fall in transactions compared to the 210 deals closed during the final quarter of 2024, although the longer-term trend of the last two years shows a marginal upward trajectory in deal volume.

The volume of large deals (valued over $1 billion) was up in the first quarter of 2025 (40 completed) compared to 34 completed in the same period last year. Whereas only one mega deal (valued over $10 billion) closed in the first three months of 2025, the lowest quarterly result for two years.

The strongest performing industries during the first quarter of 2025 were materials (+39.8pp), telecommunications(+29.2pp) and consumer products and services (+13.2pp). Meanwhile, most deal types outperformed the index, including mega deals (+6.9pp) and large deals (+8.0pp), except for medium-sized (-2.8pp), cross-regional (-0.7pp), cross sector (-4.2pp) and quick deals (-0.8pp).

Mercereau said: “A combination of pent-up demand, ample dry powder and strong balance sheets suggest the current chill in dealmaking will begin to thaw in the months ahead. Top dealmakers will double down on due dligence, with a focus on strong integration and business continuity, and look beyond short-term market volatility to find the right deals to drive growth and build competitive advantage.”

WTW QDPM Methodology

• All analysis is conducted from the perspective of the acquirer.
• Share-price performance within the quarterly study is measured as a percentage change in share price from six months prior to the announcement date to the end of the quarter.
• All deals where the acquirer owned less than 50% of the shares of the target after the acquisition were removed, hence no minority purchases have been considered. All deals where the acquirer held more than 50% of target shares prior to the acquisition have been removed, hence no remaining purchases have been considered.
• Only completed M&A deals with a value of at least $100 million which meet the study criteria are included in this research.
• Deal data sourced from Refinitiv.

About WTW M&A

WTW’s M&A practice combines our expertise in risk and human capital to offer a full range of M&A services and solutions covering all stages of the M&A process. We have particular expertise in the areas of planning, due diligence, risk transfer and post transaction integration, areas that define the success of any transaction.

About WTW

At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organisations sharpen their strategy, enhance organisational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximise performance.

Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success—and provide perspective that moves you. Learn more at wtwco.com.

Footnotes

1. The M&A research tracks the number of completed deals over $100m and the share price performance of the acquiring company against the MSCI World Index, which is used as default, unless stated otherwise. Return to article undo