“Gray zone attacks,” also known as hybrid warfare, leapt onto the world stage in 2024, as Houthi attacks on shipping disrupted global supply chains. Gray zone attacks refer to efforts to put pressure on rival states using measures short of war. Examples include destruction of critical infrastructure, state cyber-attacks, weaponization of migration, sponsorship of violent non-state actors, disinformation campaigns, and declared or undeclared economic sanctions.
Very often, businesses are in the line of fire from these attacks, such as European utilities firms who saw their undersea cables cut for unclear reasons in late November 2024.
This edition of the WTW Political Risk Index maps global patterns of gray zone attacks in the emerging world – both aggressors and victims. These attacks appear to have soared in recent years, for many reasons. One reason is that countries that are deeply interconnected by globalization increasingly find themselves in adversarial relationships, and these deep interconnections offer many avenues for gray zone action, especially actions directed at globalized businesses. Another reason is that new technologies have enabled gray zone actions, including cyber-attacks and remote attacks by drones. These remote attack technologies are ideal for actors wishing to obscure their motives or even involvement.
We also review major gray zone actors in the emerging world, noting that gray zone action is likely to continue to rise, in part because rising middle powers with limited military budgets often find that gray zone attacks are cheaper to carry out and more difficult for rival states to deter.
“Insurance relies on precise language, so the implications of ambiguous gray zone activities can be challenging”
Jared Seth | Managing Director, Global Aviation and Space, WTW
Jared Seth of WTW’s aerospace team notes that the aviation sector is increasingly experiencing gray zone attacks of its own, including GPS jamming and spoofing. “Insurance relies on precise language, so the implications of ambiguous gray zone activities can be challenging,” he writes, noting that sanctions and nuclear detonations are particular concerns.
For further information on the index or for smarter ways to manage your political risk, please contact our team.
Access the Political Risk Index: H2 2024
Sam Wilkin is WTW's director of political risk analytics, meaning he constantly monitors emerging and existing politically-linked threats to companies. He also leads WTW's annual political risk survey.
