Global post-election surge in large M&A deals sets pace for 2025

ASIA PACIFIC, January 13, 2025 — Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) achieved a significant rise in completed deals in 2024, led by a resurgence in large transactions driving momentum into 2025, according to research from WTW’s Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor (QDPM).

Run in partnership with the M&A Research Centre at Bayes Business School, the full year figures reveal 710 deals valued over $100 million were completed globally during the last 12 months. This compares to 619 transactions in 2023, representing a 15% increase in volume.

The dramatic uptick in large transactions (valued between US$1 billion and $10 billion) was especially pronounced during the second half of 2024, with 99 completed deals representing a 36% rise compared to the same period in 2023. Over a 12 month-period, large deals were up 21% in 2024 at 162 deals compared to 134 in 2023. Meanwhile, 15 megadeals (valued at over $10 billion) were completed worldwide last year, compared to 11 in 2023.

Asia Pacific (APAC) acquirers closed 163 deals in 2024, 5% more than the 155 transactions completed the previous year. Deal numbers were also up by 32% in Europe and 14% in North America.

In a year of strong equity returns, 37% of companies completing deals still managed to outperform the wider market based on share price performance. However, the aggregate performance of all deals reveals the majority of acquirers underperformed the market ^[1] by -10.9pp (percentage points) for completed acquisitions valued over $100 million during 2024.

Global M&A deals – Annual performance

APAC (+5.5pp) has been the only region to outperform over the last three years with the global three-year average at -4.9pp. That outperformance started to reverse in 2024 and followed the global trend with APAC down by -2.7pp.

Max Wright, M&A Consulting Leader Asia Pacific at WTW, said: “Similar to 2023, Japan continued to be the most active market for our clients in 2024, while China had a particularly quiet year offset by a rebound in Q4. We saw an increase in the number of companies proactively working on boosting their M&A capabilities in anticipation of increased deal activity. The tight market for talent continued although buyers are confident in their ability to retain key executives and talent during acquisitions – with the right preparation and frameworks.”

5 M&A trends for 2025

After a challenging couple of years, with most of the world having to grapple with inflation and rising interest rates, M&A activity in 2024 demonstrated signs of recovery. However, getting complex, costly transactions right in the fast-changing world of M&A will remain a challenge for buyers and sellers. The five key M&A trends this year are:

1. Consolidation and rise of mid-market deals
   Due to a shortage of high-quality M&A targets during 2024, corporates are now sitting on a record cash pile that must be directed somewhere. With deal flow predicted to increase during the next 12 months, investment will be focused on core revenue-generating functions that enhance competitive edge, with divestment of non-core assets.
   
   While the market was top-heavy during the third quarter of 2024, according to WTW data, mid-market M&A activity looks set to surge in 2025 driven by increased margin pressure, the push for scale and inorganic growth as a means to accelerate digital transformation. Under pressure to deploy vast sums of capital, private equity buyers will also see this upswing in carve outs and spin-offs as an opportunity to generate value.
2. AI’s watershed moment
   Digital transformation and the burgeoning use of AI in the deal process will be a big story in 2025. Technology-driven dealmaking is being advanced by companies seeking to integrate AI capabilities - including automation, cloud computing and cybersecurity – in order to remain competitive in a digital-first world.
   
   “With technology already cutting through every deal, the next question is whether 2025 will be a watershed moment for Gen AI when the fog of hype clears and its true value is revealed, including its potential as a powerful new tool for streamlining the resource-intensive M&A process, from target identification to due diligence and integration.
3. Economic stabilisation
   Improving economic conditions and market sentiment should give much-needed predictability for buyers to plan their financing, especially for mid-sized companies reliant on borrowing, and a more stable foundation for more deal activity. The strong equity markets should also be a key driver of M&A, usually corresponding with a positive economic outlook and high CEO confidence.
4. Geopolitical knowns and unknowns
   2024 was the year of the ballot box with more than 50 elections worldwide and despite less political instability anticipated in the short term, geopolitics will inevitably continue to define the global M&A landscape.
   
   Companies will need to be ready for the risks that come with rapid changes in regional and global stability, in particular conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. The impact of the US and China’s trade relationship on the cost of doing business could create further complexities that dealmakers will need to navigate carefully during the year ahead.
5. Regulatory limbo
   Dealmakers will be energised by the prospect of reduced regulation and cautious as they adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach regarding which policies are actually enacted by the incoming White House administration. More highly regulated sectors, including finance and pharmaceuticals, where antitrust oversight could loosen, are likely to see a lift in M&A activity.

WTW QDPM Methodology

• All analysis is conducted from the perspective of the acquirer.
• Share-price performance within the quarterly study is measured as a percentage change in share price from six months prior to the announcement date to the end of the quarter.
• All deals where the acquirer owned less than 50% of the shares of the target after the acquisition were removed, hence no minority purchases have been considered. All deals where the acquirer held more than 50% of target shares prior to the acquisition have been removed, hence no remaining purchases have been considered.
• Only completed M&A deals with a value of at least $100 million which meet the study criteria are included in this research.
• Deal data sourced from Refinitiv.

About WTW M&A

WTW’s M&A practice combines our expertise in risk and human capital to offer a full range of M&A services and solutions covering all stages of the M&A process. We have particular expertise in the areas of planning, due diligence, risk transfer and post transaction integration, areas that define the success of any transaction.

About WTW

At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximize performance.

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Footnote

1. The M&A research tracks the number of completed deals over $100m and the share price performance of the acquiring company against the MSCI World Index, which is used as default, unless stated otherwise. Return to article undo