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About our “The COVID-19 Crisis” series
The Biden administration announced a new plan to address the pandemic, centered around executive orders and mandates on employers to require vaccination. These plans will likely be subject to litigation; however, employers should be prepared to implement a series of required actions based on the following points:
The requirement for employers to mandate vaccinations or weekly testing will have an enormous impact on U.S. employers, who have increasingly been recognizing that communication, time off and incentives help increase vaccination somewhat, but aren’t going to get us to near-universal vaccination. Employers recognize that unvaccinated employees represent a risk to their organizations — both a risk that they will bring COVID-19 into the workplace and infect fellow employees, or customers or clients, and a risk that if there is a workplace exposure there could be business interruption as many employees require quarantine.
Many employers will greet this news with at least a bit of a sigh of relief. Mandates are the most effective way to increase population vaccination, and if all employers have such a mandate, employers need not worry that employees will leave because of the mandate. This could also create national consistency, so employers don’t face different rules on vaccine and testing mandates from state to state.
But few employers welcome additional regulation and oversight, and some object to mandates on principle. The DOL must still write the rules to implement these executive orders. As opponents go to court, there is some danger that the uncertainty around these requirements could encourage some ambivalent employers to delay vaccination mandates until the litigation is resolved.
Note: For additional information, please see our article “Should Your Company Implement a Vaccine Mandate” in Harvard Business Review, last week.
We saw a decrease in the average daily cases from about 150,000 last week to about 140,000 this week. Hospitalizations and deaths, which usually lag cases, are also down. Other countries have found that viral waves subside after two to three months — possibly due to increased vaccination, more natural immunity or increased masking, distancing and immunization by those concerned with infection rates.
The return to school and huge gatherings with no distancing or masking could interrupt the decline in cases. In the U.S., we are clearly going into the fall with a much higher rate of community transmission than we had last year.
Still we’re up to 75% of adults with a single vaccination, and we had 14 million new people get their first vaccinations in August — up from just 10 million in July. Notably, two mRNA vaccines are more effective against Delta than a single shot, although a single shot might be effective for those who have previously had COVID-19. We are not likely to have the type of devastating wave this winter that we had in 2020 because of our higher levels of immunity from vaccinations and natural infections.
The seven-day moving average was 135,749 on September 10, 2021.
Source: CDC
The American Academy of Pediatrics published new data showing that pediatric cases of COVID-19 continue to rise. Five million children have been diagnosed with COVID-19 since April 2020, with a little under 20,000 hospitalizations and 444 deaths. Kids represent 15% of diagnosed COVID-19 cases, 2.4% of hospitalizations and 0.08% of total deaths from COVID-19.
The New York Times reported last week that the increase in pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations is higher in the 10 states with the lowest vaccination rates, while there appears to be no increase in pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations in the 10 states with the highest vaccination rates.
Clearly the reopening of schools represents a time of opportunity and danger. We’re excited that children will gain the academic and social advantages of in-person education. But we’re worried about the potential for outbreaks associated with schools. And we should worry. There were over 90,000 students quarantined for COVID-19 exposure in late August, even though most school districts were still on summer break.
We have the tools to decrease this risk substantially, by vaccinating teachers, staff and children age 12 and older who are now eligible for vaccination. Hopefully, we will see the first emergency use authorization for a vaccination for kids under 12 in mid-fall. Improved ventilation, masks and distancing can all help decrease risk too. Masking also means that fewer children will need to quarantine when there are cases in schools.
Employers will be watching schools carefully. Hopefully, we can limit school-related outbreaks so that parents will not have to return to supervising their children during school days, and we can learn how to reduce risk in the workplace from the efforts made in schools.
Jeff is an internal medicine physician and has led WTW’s clinical response to COVID-19 and other health-related topics. He has served in leadership roles in provider organizations and a health plan and is an Assistant Professor at Harvard Chan School of Public Health.