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Press Release

Global M&A upbeat start under threat as trade war escalates

April 8, 2025

Mergers and Acquisitions
N/A

NEW YORK, April 8, 2025 — Global dealmakers achieved a market outperformance in the first three months of 2025, according to research on completed deals from WTW’s Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor (QDPM). Based on share price performance, companies making M&A deals outclassed the wider market[1] by +1.5 percentage points for acquisitions valued over $100 million completed between January and March 2025.

This is the first positive period since the final three months of 2022, following seven consecutive quarters of negative performance for acquirers. The long-term 15+ year trend continues to show M&A deals to have outperformed the market by +1.0 percentage points since the global financial crisis.

Run in partnership with the M&A Research Centre at Bayes Business School, the data reveal that all regional acquirers, except for North America, outperformed their respective regional index for the first three months of 2025. During this period, North American dealmakers were –2.2 percentage points below their regional index with 81 deals completed. This marks nine successive quarters of negative performance in the region over the past two years.

In contrast, European buyers significantly outperformed their regional index by +16.0 percentage points during the first three months of 2025, although with fewer completed deals compared with the previous quarter (29 versus 42). U.K. dealmakers also outperformed the index, reflecting the wider European trend. Asia Pacific acquirers are +5.8 percentage points above their regional index with 44 deals completed in the past three months, down from 61 deals in the final quarter of 2024.

“The introduction of broad new U.S. tariffs, coupled with geopolitical instability, is expected to dampen the M&A landscape in the near future. Boardrooms are likely to put deals on hold as they assess the implications for their operations, adopting a cautious approach until the situation becomes clearer,” said David Dean, managing director, M&A Consulting, WTW.

“At the same time, ongoing challenges have occurred over the past three years, and numerous companies have successfully navigated these obstacles to achieve inorganic growth. This is evident from the recent string of successful deals in Europe and Asia,” said Dean.

The M&A data reveal that 163 deals valued over $100 million were completed globally during the first quarter of 2025. This represents a 22% fall in transactions compared with the 210 deals closed during the final quarter of 2024, although the longer-term trend of the past two years shows a marginal upward trajectory in deal volume.

The volume of large deals (valued over $1 billion) was up in the first quarter of 2025 (40 completed) compared with 34 completed in the same period last year, whereas only one mega deal (valued over $10 billion) closed in the first three months of 2025, the lowest quarterly result for two years.

The strongest performing industries during the first quarter of 2025 were materials (+39.8 percentage points), telecommunications (+29.2 percentage points), and consumer products and services (+13.2 percentage points). Meanwhile, most deal types outperformed the index, including mega deals (+6.9 percentage points) and large deals (+8.0 percentage points), except for midsize (–2.8 percentage points), cross-regional (–0.7 percentage points), cross sector (–4.2 percentage points) and quick deals (–0.8 percentage points).

“The current slowdown in dealmaking is likely to ease in the coming months, driven by pent-up demand, significant available capital and robust balance sheets. Top dealmakers will intensify their due diligence, focusing on effective integration and business continuity. They will look past short-term market volatility to identify the right opportunities for growth and to strengthen their competitive edge,” concluded Dean.

WTW QDPM methodology

  • All analysis is conducted from the perspective of the acquirer.
  • Share-price performance within the quarterly study is measured as a percentage change in share price from six months prior to the announcement date to the end of the quarter.
  • All deals where the acquirer owned less than 50% of the shares of the target after the acquisition were removed; hence, no minority purchases have been considered. All deals where the acquirer held more than 50% of target shares prior to the acquisition have been removed; hence, no remaining purchases have been considered.
  • Only completed M&A deals with a value of at least $100 million that meet the study criteria are included in this research.
  • Deal data are sourced from Refinitiv.

About WTW M&A

WTW’s M&A practice combines our expertise in risk and human capital to offer a full range of M&A services and solutions covering all stages of the M&A process. We have particular expertise in the areas of planning, due diligence, risk transfer and post transaction integration, areas that define the success of any transaction.

About WTW

At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximize performance.

Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success—and provide perspective that moves you.

Footnote

  1. The M&A research tracks the number of completed deals over $100 million and the share price performance of the acquiring company against the MSCI World Index, which is used as default, unless stated otherwise. Return to article
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